What are the key takeaways
- Total emissions in NSW decreased by 27% between 2005 and 2022, however, excluding the land sector, emissions only decreased by 18% in the same period.
- Significant decarbonisation in the electricity and energy sector will be required to meet the state’s 2030 and 2035 targets.
- All sectors of the economy need to play their part in meeting legislated targets, including all areas of government.
- Potential emission increases associated with extended or expanded coal projects may require other sectors to make greater emissions reductions to meet the state’s emissions target.
- Carbon stored in the land sector has been a large contributor to NSW's progress in reducing its net greenhouse gas emissions. However, there is significant uncertainty on how much carbon the land sector will be able to store in the future, especially with a changing climate.
Download the report
- Get up to speed on NSW’s progress towards its emissions reduction targets and adaptation objective.
- Understand the state’s progress across electricity and energy, transport, agriculture and land, industry and waste, resources and the built environment sectors.
- Read the report now and discover the opportunities for your sector.
This report is also available on the NSW Parliament website.
Minor typographical errors were amended and the report was republished on 17 December 2024.
What you need to know
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Electricity and energy
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Transport
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Agriculture
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Land
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Industry and waste
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Resources
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Built environment
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Adaptation
Electricity and energy
What we found:
The rapid decarbonisation of the electricity and energy sector is critical to NSW achieving its emissions reductions targets. This sector is the largest contributor to NSW emissions and underpins many emissions reduction measures in transport, industry and buildings. Recent decisions to delay the closure of coal fired power stations emphasise the need to redouble efforts to accelerate the rollout of renewables and storage.
What needs to be done:
NSW needs to accelerate the pace of building renewable generation and storage. In addition to dedicated renewable energy zones, NSW needs to make greater use of existing transmission and distribution networks. This will connect new renewable generation and continue to expand consumer energy resources such as smart appliances, home batteries and electric vehicles.
Transport
What we found:
Transport is the second-highest emitting sector in NSW, with road transport responsible for 87% of these emissions.
What needs to be done:
More needs to be done to avoid emissions by improving the overall efficiency of the transport system and encouraging a shift to lower-emissions transport modes for passengers and freight.
Agriculture
What we found:
Without accelerated efforts from government and the private sector, the sector is unlikely to significantly contribute to emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2035, and may become the largest source of remaining emissions in NSW in 2050.
What needs to be done:
Targeted policies and funding will be required to support the agriculture sector in adopting proven emissions reduction technologies and scaling up new innovations.
Land
What we found:
Reported emissions reductions and carbon storage are uncertain due to:
- frequent and major changes in measuring methodology
- changes in our understanding of how much carbon can be stored in land and how much is released from the land, especially with a changing climate.
What needs to be done:
More work is needed to inform how the commission should treat and communicate the land sector’s contribution to emissions reduction targets.
Industry and waste
What we found:
Many industrial processes lack viable abatement options for the immediate future. Decarbonisation options for many hard-to-abate processes will depend on a supply of affordable clean electricity and fuels. Decarbonised supply chains, commercial availability of new technologies and the establishment of shared enabling infrastructure before they can be implemented, will also be required.
What needs to be done:
Investment and planning are required now to enable major industry emission reductions in the 2030s and 2040s.
Reductions in waste emissions are largely driven by landfill gas capture. Increasing capture rates can drive further reductions this decade.
Resources
What we found:
Emissions in this sector could increase if currently proposed extensions and expansions of coal projects go ahead. This poses a challenge for the state’s emissions targets. Addressing the broader social and economic implications for NSW communities in transitioning to a net zero economy is particularly relevant in this sector.
What needs to be done:
Given the importance of this sector to the NSW emissions reduction targets, the commission will prioritise a deep consideration of issues in this sector on its 2024-25 annual report.
Built environment
What we found:
Emissions in this sector have nearly doubled from 2005 to 2022. The sector is still not on an emissions reduction trajectory, despite most of the technologies needed to reduce emissions being already commercially available.
What needs to be done:
There is significant scope for greater government action to drive building electrification and reduce refrigerant emissions.
Adaptation
What we found:
Temperature is the most robust indicator of climate change. NSW has already warmed by 1.4 degrees since national records began in 1910. The NSW Government has made some progress and recently delivered the NSW Climate Change Adaption Action Plan 2025-2029 and the updated NSW and Australian Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM 2.0). The NSW Climate Change Risk and Opportunity Assessment, originally scheduled to be delivered in 2023, has been delayed to early 2025.
What needs to be done:
Priority should now be given to completing the state-wide climate risk assessment, as this is a critical part of the evidence base to inform state-wide adaptation action.
Measuring progress on climate change adaptation is challenging. In future, the commission aims to create a clear approach for measuring progress, including quantitative measures where possible.
Report origins
The commission is required by legislation to deliver an annual report each year. Find out more about the report requirements and our role.
The Act outlines the requirement for the commission to deliver its annual report, by 1 November each year, to the NSW Minister for Climate Change.
We provide expert advice and recommendations on NSW’s approach to addressing climate change. Read more about the role of the commission.
Meet the 8 commissioners who delivered this year’s report.
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